New on macpkr.net we will show you a random hand from our Pokertracker database and explain it.

this week:

Preflop: Admin is Button with (6 players)
4 fold , Admin raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.5 SB) (2 players)
BB bets, Admin calls.

Villain can have a lot of different hands here. He could have QJ or QT for a gutshot, a flush draw, or a pair. We are far behind against Kx or a better 9x, and we also don’t really have an equity edge against a draw. Against we only have 55% equity, and against we only have 60%. We either have a small equity edge, or we are far behind. What we certainly don’t want to do here is make the pot bigger than it needs to be.

Turn: (3.25BB) (2 players)
BB bets, Admin calls.

One of the best cards that could have come. If villain had Kx he was ahead anyway, and with the on the turn, there are only two Kings left in the deck, making it less likely villain has one of them. Furthermore, you now have extra outs against a hands like T9 (if the river is a A, K, Q or J you split the pot). We are definitely not folding here.

River: (5.25BB) (2 players)
BB bets, Admin calls.

Another blank. We might have the best hand here, we might not. The pot is giving us more than 6:1 odds to call, which means we only need to win 15% of the time. So even if you call here and lose 70% of the time, you will still make a profit in the long run by calling. And if villain does have a hand like K4 here, we lost the minimum.

If the turn shows a card like we should probably think about folding, either on the turn or on the river. All the draws have now hit and all we beat is a pure bluff.